Is next economic crisis inevitable for our global quilt blanket future?

What do we know about different projects to overcome the crisis?

Can we foresee post crisis developments and paths? 

The message from the President of IISES

Social and Economic Studies – what are we aiming at? The world, and in particular Europe, has suffered a lot from various economic and financial crises with enormous social repercussions. Big companies that disappeared because of the crises are well known. But who speaks about the hundred thousands of small and medium enterprises that did not survive a crisis that they were not responsible for? What about the millions who lost their job? And the millions who lost their financial investment recommended before by banks and other financial institutions?

The last crisis started in 2007. Everybody remembers the key words of the still ongoing debate about this crisis, subprime mortgage, housing bubble, Lehman Brothers ….

Allegedly this crisis is over, is it really? If not, how long will it still last? And how it will end? By itself, or can and will it be terminated by which economic forces. And when it will end, when and why will the next crisis come? There are questions after questions? There are no simple answers. We may look into the economic sciences and find no convincing explanations, only theories that are very often contradictory. The conventional or traditional economic sciences teach us that crisis would come and go in cycles. In a retro perspective view that may look to be proved despite evident differences in the cycles and the time between the cycles of the past. But it does not help to predict or even prevent new crises.

For the real world and the repercussions of economic crisis on daily life everything that is said afterwards is obviously in vain. As we have seen in the lessons allegedly learned in the past did neither prevent nor moderate the next crisis. The only thing that we certainly know so far is that economic crises are coming and going. One could assume that there is a “Darwinian” built-in mechanism in Adam Smith’s market economy to clean-up the economy and let only the strong ones survive. Are crises just to apply the law of the jungle in our economy? Are those who do not want to accept such an assessment condemned to fail?

Or is there a chance by using new models, e.g. dynamic modeling instruments, In creating a mathematical model of socioeconomic processes, not only to predict emerging crises but by providing the macro-economic data for governments and international financial institutions to enable them to take the right measures to escape from the silently ongoing “old” crisis and to avoid a new one. Social and economic studies are not an end in itself but should serve the people. The International Institute for Social and Economic Studies (IISES) is a platform for such attempts. It is open for new and unconventional approaches in social and economic science.

Dr.Walter Schwimmer

President IISES

Secretary General Council of Europe 1999-2004

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1. The future of the world economy. Crisis and possibilities of overcoming the structural imbalances 

2. The problems of the middle class in the coming crisis and its social consequences 

3. An estimate of the total magnitude of the crisis and its duration 

4. Possible regional monetary and economic systems as the consequences of the collapse of the global dollar system 

5. Regional financial systems and the potential for future economic growth


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