Author affiliation: Deputy Chairman – Board Member, State Corporation “Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs ( Vnesheconombank)”
Weak consistency between monetary (i.e. exchange rate), fiscal and structural policies is one of the key obstacles to economic growth in Russia. It particularly manifests itself during periods of negative cycle. Since 2013 the Russian economy has been facing a strong slowdown and stagnation, and this was attributable not only to structural factors but also to restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. Economic recovery and returning to the average world economy's growth pace calls for a significant easing of the monetary policy. Structural reforms must be accompanied by a policy of exchange rate targeting and establishing of a new budget rule.
Keywords: crisis, structural impediment for growth, inflation and exchange rate targeting, budget rule.
Over the past 18 years, Russia has experienced three large-scale economic crisis. The crisis of 1998 drew the line under the transformational crisis of the 90s and cleared the way for the Russian economic recovery. In 2007, the economy exceeded a pre-crisis or pre-transformation level of 1990 and matured to meet new shocks that were not long in coming. The global crisis at the end of 2008-2009 changed the trajectory of the development of the Russian economy, and although the pre-crisis level was restored in two years, the transition to a new sustainable development pathway was not completed. A new crisis caused by external factors - sanctions and falling oil prices, delivered a blow at the end of 2014. The way out of the crisis may acquire a protracted character that is close to stagnation.
Crisis, as an explosive manifestation of all the accumulated contradictions and conflicts, serve greatly as the defining moment for both business and implemented economic policy. At the same time, it is, firstly, an opportunity to overcome, at least partially, the accumulated problems. Secondly, a possibility of the transition to a new, possibly improved development model, as well as the road to a new crisis.